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March 16, 2024

Turkish Lira Inflation Hits 100% Per Year. What is Happening to the Turkish Economy?


Article on the topic: "Turkish Lira Inflation Hits 100% Per Year. What is Happening to the Turkish Economy?"

Turkey's economy has recently experienced one of the most challenging periods in its history, caught in the grip of record inflation. 

Over the past year, the value of the Turkish lira has declined by more than 100%, causing serious concern both nationally and internationally. 

This fall in currency has led to a series of economic problems, including an increase in the cost of imports, which, in turn, triggered a wave of higher prices for goods and services, affecting all sectors of the population.

For ordinary Turkish citizens, the effects of inflation are felt in everyday life: from the rising costs of food and essential goods to increased housing and utility expenses. 

This has not only deteriorated the general standard of living but also fuelled social discontent. 

For businesses, the increase in the cost of imported materials and energy resources has posed a serious challenge, exacerbating an already difficult economic environment.

The impact of inflation is felt at all levels of the economy, from macroeconomic stability to the daily lives of ordinary people. 

The government is taking various measures to stabilize the situation, but many experts believe that addressing the issue will require a comprehensive approach and significant economic reforms.

In this article, we will attempt to understand the reasons behind the rapid decline of the Turkish lira, as well as assess the scale of the consequences for the Turkish economy and its citizens.

Main Causes of Inflation


Turkey's Economic Policy


One of the primary reasons for Turkey's record inflation is its economic policy, particularly its unique approach to monetary policy. 

In recent years, the country's central bank has lowered its key rate in an effort to stimulate economic growth. 

This strategy has proven counterintuitive in an environment of rising inflation, as the traditional method to combat inflation involves raising interest rates to reduce consumer demand and slow the rate of price growth.

Government spending also plays a significant role. Expansionary fiscal policy, including increased public investment and social transfers, can stimulate the economy in the short term. 

However, with high debt levels and fiscal deficits, such measures contribute to increased inflationary pressures.

External Factors


Global economic trends significantly impact the Turkish economy. The rise in world oil prices negatively affects the country's economy, a significant portion of which depends on imports. 

Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a decline in tourism and exports, further contributing to economic challenges.

International trade relations, including tensions with some key trading partners, have increased pressure on the foreign exchange market, contributing to a deterioration in the trade balance and further weakening of the lira.

Internal Challenges


The level of confidence in the national currency has significantly decreased, affecting the behaviour of both local and foreign investors. 

Growing distrust in the lira leads to an increased demand for foreign currency, further weakening the domestic currency.

Inflationary expectations of the population also exacerbate the situation. When people anticipate further price increases, they tend to increase their spending in the present, causing inflation to accelerate further.

Political instability and uncertainty regarding the country's economic policies increase risks for the economy. 

This affects the investment climate and can lead to capital outflow, putting additional pressure on the national currency.

Impact on the Economy and Population


Consumer Market


Inflation erodes people's purchasing power, particularly affecting low and middle-income families. As prices for goods and services rise, money loses its value faster than incomes grow.

As a result, people can afford fewer goods and services, lowering their overall standard of living. 

Everyday purchases, such as food, clothing, and utilities, become increasingly burdensome, limiting people's ability to save and invest.

Business Environment


Small and medium-sized businesses face particular pressure due to rising borrowing costs and increasing prices for raw materials and services. 

Inflation reduces purchasing power, leading to decreased sales and profits. 

For foreign investors, heightened inflation and currency volatility increase the risks of investing in the Turkish economy, potentially leading to a reduction in foreign direct investments, significantly impacting economic growth and employment.

Social Influence


Inflation has profound social impacts, exacerbating poverty and social inequality. 

Families on the brink of poverty encounter even greater difficulties in meeting their basic needs, leading to increased social tension and potentially contributing to a rise in crime rates. 

Moreover, educational and health services become less accessible to large sections of the population, undermining the country's long-term social and economic development.

In conditions of high inflation, it is essential to implement a set of measures aimed at protecting the most vulnerable segments of the population and supporting businesses, especially in the small and medium-sized enterprise sector. 

This includes monetary stimuli, tax breaks, and social programmes aimed at reducing poverty and supporting economic activity.

Government Measures and Prospects


Response Measures


To stabilize the economy and currency, the Turkish government has taken several key steps. 

These measures include tightening monetary policy to combat inflation, despite the previous trend towards lower interest rates. 

Plans have also been announced to improve government finances, including reducing the budget deficit and controlling government spending.

An important step has been the introduction of incentives to attract foreign investment, as well as measures to support the national currency, including the possibility of intervention in the foreign exchange market. 

Additionally, programmes to support small and medium-sized businesses have been launched to mitigate the economic damage from inflation and support employment.

Expert Opinions


Economists and experts are divided on the effectiveness of the government's measures. Some analysts believe that the steps taken could help stabilize the economy and strengthen the lira in the short term. 

However, other experts express doubts about the long-term sustainability of this approach, highlighting the need for deeper structural reforms, including strengthening the independence of the central bank and improving the investment climate.

Possible Scenarios


The development of the economic situation in Turkey depends on many internal and external factors. 

An optimistic scenario suggests that current measures and further reforms will stabilize inflation and restore economic growth. 

This will require significant efforts in macroeconomic stabilization and improving the business environment.

In a more pessimistic scenario, if the measures taken prove insufficient or are poorly implemented, the country could face continued currency volatility, high inflation, and slower economic growth. 

This could increase social discontent and put pressure on the political situation in the country.

Regardless, the future of Turkey's economy will depend on the flexibility and effectiveness of economic policies, the ability to adapt to changing global conditions and internal challenges. 

The international context, including trade relations, must also be considered.

The Impact of MINIBOSS BUSINESS SCHOOL on the Future Economy of Turkey


Amid economic challenges, Turkey’s future entrepreneurs and business leaders are being nurtured in various institutions across the country, playing a pivotal role in driving economic recovery and growth. 

A notable example of such an educational initiative is the MINIBOSS BUSINESS SCHOOL, which has established branches worldwide, including in Antalya, Turkey, (Instagram). 

This institution is dedicated to equipping young minds with the entrepreneurial skills and knowledge necessary to navigate the complexities of the modern business world.

Furthermore, Turkey continues to demonstrate its commitment to fostering entrepreneurship and innovation through significant events such as the GLOBAL BUSINESS WEEK 2024 in Istanbul

This event will include the Startup World Cup Championship 2024, a prestigious competition that brings together young entrepreneurs from around the globe to pitch their startup ideas and vie for investment and recognition. 

Such events play a crucial role not only in placing Turkey on the global map of entrepreneurship but also in inspiring the next generation of Turkish entrepreneurs.

These educational initiatives and events underscore Turkey's efforts to develop a vibrant entrepreneurial ecosystem, which is vital for the nation's economic resurgence and long-term prosperity. 

By investing in the education of its youth and providing platforms for international exposure, Turkey is laying the groundwork for a future led by innovative thinkers and successful entrepreneurs.

The inflation situation in Turkey provides an important lesson for the global community about the importance of sustainable economic policies and preparedness to respond to external and internal shocks. 

It underscores the significance of a balanced macroeconomic strategy, including central bank independence, sound public financial management, and the protection of vulnerable populations. 

It also illustrates the importance of global economic cooperation and mutual support in overcoming economic challenges.

Let Turkey's experience serve as a reminder that the economic sustainability and well-being of a nation require sustained efforts, prudent policies, and the active participation of the international community. 

The lessons learned from this situation can assist other countries in preventing similar crises and contribute to creating a more resilient global economic system.

Author:
Valeriia Khakimova

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